Myanmar release of Suu Kyi top ally spurs small democracy hope

YANGON – The release of Myanmar’s putsch-ousted former president has piqued speculation about the fate of detained leader Aung San Suu Kyi, but there is little optimism among citizens and analysts watching for a democracy comeback.

“I don’t expect much from this release,” said one 50-year-old Yangon resident, speaking on condition of anonymity for security reasons.

“There is no reason to be thankful because he was arrested unjustly in the first place.”

Myanmar’s military swept aside the elected government of Ms Suu Kyi in a 2021 coup, detaining the Nobel Peace Prize laureate and senior aides, including her ceremonial president Win Myint.

His pardon on April 17 was the biggest concession yet by the country’s post-coup leadership headed by President Min Aung Hlaing, who ruled for five years as military chief before last week being sworn in as civilian president.

The release has raised the question of whether 80-year-old Ms Suu Kyi may soon be freed or shifted to house arrest.

“This is definitely a possibility,” said International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) research fellow Morgan Michaels, while cautioning “such measures should not be misconstrued as a genuine turn towards peace or reconciliation”.

Ms Suu Kyi’s family mansion in Yangon witnessed no security build-up on April 17 or the morning of April 18, AFP journalists saw, hinting she remains sequestered in the sprawling military-dominated capital Naypyitaw.

“There is no sign of moving aunty back to her home yet,” a source from her dissolved National League for Democracy (NLD) party told AFP anonymously for security reasons on April 18, using the affectionate term followers refer to her by.

‘Bargaining chips’

Mr Min Aung Hlaing’s pardon of Mr Win Myint was one of his first acts as civilian president and on its face would seem to soften his stance.

But analysts argue it is actually a sign of the unassailed strength of his post-coup leadership.

“Using political prisoners as bargaining chips for Min Aung Hlaing’s political manoeuvring should not be seen as reform or opening, but a measure of confidence in the new regime’s stability,” said independent Myanmar analyst David Mathieson.

When Mr Min Aung Hlaing launched his coup, he made allegations that Ms Suu Kyi’s landslide majority of MPs had won their seats through massive voter fraud in 2020 polls.

The putsch triggered a civil war, and after five years of ruling by diktat, Mr Min Aung Hlaing oversaw a rerun of the vote, which was barred in rebel-held territory, excluding Ms Suu Kyi’s party and punishing criticism of the election with prison time.

In January, it delivered a walkover win for the military’s allies in civilian politics, who backed Mr Min Aung Hlaing to serve as president in a transition that democracy watchdogs have derided as a rebranding of military rule.

For Mr Mathieson, Mr Win Myint’s release is just another part of that “authoritarian theatre”.

“This isn’t a genuine amnesty, it’s character laundering,” he said.

Mr Michaels said forgiveness orders are a key survivalist strategy for the leadership as it makes a bid to recover from its post-coup pariah status in some quarters.

“Min Aung Hlaing’s decision to release President Win Myint is part of a conflict management strategy designed to reduce domestic and international pressure,” he said.

The military leadership “has a long history of offering limited concession or compromise when the costs of its draconian rule and violent repression become prohibitive to institutional objectives”, he added.

‘Watched closely’

Mr Win Myint was a close confidante of Ms Suu Kyi.

The mass amnesty on April 17 saw all prisoners with sentences under 40 years have one-sixth of their remaining terms reduced.

A source close to Ms Suu Kyi’s legal case told AFP that the blanket measure cut a chunk off her 27-year term for convictions that rights groups say were fabricated to sideline her.

Meanwhile, Mr Win Myint was freed and “in good health” at his daughter’s house in the capital Naypyitaw, according to an NLD spokesman, but has yet to make any public remarks.

Mr Michaels said releases such as his “may offer opportunities for savvy opponents”.

“If some opposition groups agree to ‘play the game’ and shift the contest into the political arena, even partially, they will have a good chance at winning more concessions,” he said.

“At present, however, most opposition groups and the activist community insist that the ongoing transition offers no such opportunity.”

One Myanmar citizen in Yangon was sceptical that the released but isolated former president could become a rallying figure.

“He will still be watched closely,” said the 27-year-old, speaking anonymously for security reasons.

“So I don’t expect any real political change he could do in this situation.” AFP